The Crab and Seafood Newsletter January 2019

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📷A current review of King crab and Snow crab fishing, quotas, and markets from an International Perspective.

The Crab and Seafood Newsletter January 2019 By :  Les Hodges   With Hiroshi Ohnuma 

OVERVIEW>> The 2019 Russian crab quotas have been released and it is clear that the fishery is in good shape in contrast to Alaska which faces challenges.  The total Russian crab quota of all species of crab is again over 100,000 m/t(220mm lbs.). The combined king crab species alone accounts for 38,743 m/t (85.4mm lbs.). International markets firmed on live crab in November/December while no significant change was noted on the US king crab after the major increases in prices this past fall.    This report is based on the latest available data provided from sources in the International crab business, Industry data and various governmental data.  📷  

 This newsletter has 2 sections: Crab Fishing and Crab Markets

. CRAB FISHING  Russian Far East: The 2019 Crab quotas have been released and are similar to 2018 quotas with the exception of Bairdi snow crab which is lower.  The 2019 quotas for major products are listed below:

Far East Crab Quotas 2019M/TLbs.Red king crab16,523 m/t36.426mm lbs.Blue king crab8,781 m/t19.359mm lbs.Golden king crab3,224 m/t7.108mm lbs.Opilio snow crab31,218 m/t68.823mm lbs.Bairdi snow crab1,294 m/t2.853mm lbs.Angulatus snow crab9,722 m/t21.433mm lbs.Japonicus snow crab8,200 m/t18.078mm lbs.

  As of December16,2018 there were 71 vessels fishing various crab.  As the new year started vessels returned to port and the effort dropped to 12 vessels as of January 2,2019.  Of the 12 vessels still fishing 8 are working for the live market.  The 2019 quotas are allocated by company and we expect that when operators again focus on Blue king crab more than half will be destined for the Asia live market. 

    Russian Barents Sea Fishery:  The 2019 quota for Barents crab remains  the same as 2018 with the fishery in good shape.    Size of the Red king crab from this fishery is very large with 60% being over 1,100 gm/pc (2.5 lbs/pc). This will be a valuable commodity for the U.S. leg and claw business.Barents Sea Crab Quotas 2019M/TLbs.Red king crab9,940 m/t21.914mm lbs.Opilio snow crab9,840 m/t21.693mm lbs. 

Norway: The Norwegian processors are clearly committed to the live crab market with 1,372 m/t exported through November with the largest market being Korea. Average price for live Red king crab delivered Korea through November was $41.09/kg. 

  Alaska:The Red king crab fishery essentially finished with most product going to Japan.  The quota was -36% for 2018 vs 2017 at 4.3mm lbs. and was no 2018 Blue king crab quota.   The quota for Golden king crab was increased by 1mm lbs. to 6.3mm lbs. for both zones and the fall fishery is now 83% completed. The Opilio snow crab for quota was increased 47% to 27.954 mm lbs and that fishery is just underway. There will also be a small Bairdi snow crab fishery (2.4mm lbs.).  

MARKETS:

 Japan Market: Japan Imports of king crab through November were up 23% at 2,842 m/t.  The source was primarily Russian.  Live imports were small and totaling only 436 m/t. Snow crab imports were down -15 to a total of 17,116 m/t.  Average price during November on Red king crab was $39.30/kg and Opilio snow crab at $20.31 according to Japanese customs.

  Korea Market: Live Red King crab imports from Russia to Korea through November 2018 are 4,308 m/t (9.497mm lbs.).  Norway has delivered 815 m/t (1.797mm lbs.) of live King crab through October. Live snow crab imports were 6,746m/t (14.872mm lbs.). Prices increased to an average of $37.13/kg on Red King crab and $22.47/kg. on live Snow crab in November according to Korean Customs Service. 

   China Market: Based upon the percentages seen this fall there could be over 6,000 m/t of live  crab delivered from this past fall Russian Far East fisheries. Final shipments from the just finished fishery are being delivered and Dungeness crab should begin next week in spite of the additional 25% tariff.   📷

 U.S. Market:  The Foreign Trade Data for U.S. imports which was due out on 1/6/19 has been delayed due to the partial governmental shutdown. US imports of King crab in October were up 109% compared to the same period of 2017. Based upon the fishing and tramper reports we expect deliveries to be also strong in November.  The prices of medium size Red and Golden king crab at the end of December are currently up almost 30% vs. 2017. Price increases from 2017 ranged from $2.85 to $4.30/lb. depending on size according to Urner Barry.  It is interesting to note that the current 16/20 Golden king crab price is $2.45 higher than last years 16/20 Red king crab.   However, large size Red king crab prices are up only 2% compared to 2017.  This amounts to a .40 increase for 6/9 and 9/12 size.  This is an excellent value. We have access to some excellent quality large Red king crab.

 Please consider the offer below which is valid through 1/11/19:  

MSC SizeX warehouse SeaRussian Red king crab6/9 Count$20.35Russian Red king crab9/12Count$19.35

 Alaska and Russian Golden king crab are now both at historically high prices. The size of Alaskan Golden king crab is somewhat larger than the current Russian catch and is receiving a .15 premium on most sizes vs. Russian product.  U.S. imports of Opilio snow crab through November are expected to continue below 2017 levels.  Snow crab sales have clearly slowed due to again historically high prices. 📷 

The Dungeness crab fishery has finally opened in most areas of the West Coast as meat content has increased to acceptable levels.  The initial grounds price has been established at $2.75/lb.  It appears that China will be buying live crab in spite of the 25% tariff that was added to the 7% tariff as a response to U.S. tariffs.  This as the Canadian fishery has been a disappointment and there is market demand. Prices in the U.S.  of cooked clusters are in the mid to high $8.00 range, but not a lot of inventory at this time. Whole cooks are also up with the same limited supply situation. Having missed the just completed holiday season will make this fishery interesting.

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The Crab and Seafood Newsletter December 2018
by Les Hodges  

OVERVIEW>>
The strong growth  of live crab market in China and Korea has far exceeded expectations for Russian Far East Red and Blue king crab fishery.  The same incredible growth is true for Opilio snow crab. This has resulted in a shortage of  crab and higher prices for the U.S. crab market
 This report is based on the latest available data provided from well known sources in the international crab fisheries, U.S. seafood companies and US government data. 

This newsletter is divided into two sections: Crab Fishing and Crab Markets.

CRAB FISHING- Russian Far East: As of late November there were a total of 68 vessels fishing various crab.   23 vessels are fishing for  the 16,504 m/t quota on Red king crab and 65% continue to ship to the live King crab markets primarily in China and Korea. The size of the processed clusters has been good with approximately 50% being 900 gm up (1.99 lbs. up) and remainder split between two smaller sizes.

 Blue king crab deliveries of live crab have dropped off and some processors began cooking crab once the fall Red king crab season started in September. This has resulted increased deliveries to the US market in October.  After the Red king crab fishery closed it is expected that the fishing vessels will again deliver live Blue king crab from the 2019 quota.  Only 2 vessels are processing cooked Golden king crab as the 2018 quotas are about exhausted.

 14 vessels are fishing Opilio and all are currently delivering live crab to China and Korea. It's quite different for the Deepwater snow crab as  the Asia market has not accepted live Angulatus and Japonicus snow crab at this time resulting in all 14 vessels processing cooked crab.
 Prices of live Red king crab delivered to China and Korea have weakened from summer highs in the high $40 range to a $23 - $2/kg range due to high volumes of Russian Far East Red king crab.  Russian producers advised that they expect an increase as we move into the holiday season. Norwegian live Red king crab prices are also moved lower this fall.

Russian Barents Sea Fishery: Current information concludes that the current  9,940 m/t (21.914mm/lbs.)quota of  Red king crab has been processed as of 11/20/18.  Size of clusters are very large with 60% being over 1,100 gm/pc (2.5 lbs/pc) This should be the source of the largest inventory that U.S. buyers can turn to for supply in 2019.   The catch should result in over 13mm lbs. of cooked Red king crab for the U.S., EU, and Japan with most being delivered in 2019.

Norway: The Norwegian processors continue to focus on the live crab markets. There were 192 m/t of Red king crab exported in November with the largest markets being France and Korea.  Year to date exports are 1,900 m/t which  is an increase of 12% vs. 2017. Norwegian prices are down with offers of live Red king crab at $29 and $30 CNF Asia main international air port.

Alaska: The quota for Alaska Red king crab was off -36% for 2018 vs 2017 at 4.3mm lbs. and is no 2018 Blue king crab quota.   The Red king crab fishery is esentially finished with most product said to be going to Japan. The quota for Golden king crab was increased by 1mm lbs. to 6.3mm lbs. for both zones. Product from the fall fishery is now in the U.S. market. The Opilio snow crab for quota has been increased 47% to 27.954 mm lbs. and there will be a small Bairdi snow crab fishery (2.4mm lbs.).


Japan Market: Japan Imports of king crab through October were up 30% vs the same period in 2017 at 1,615 m/t.  The source was primarily Russian.  Live imports were small and totaling only 305 m/t. Snow crab imports were down -19% through October at 15,068 m/t vs 18,699 m/t in 2017.  Average price for October on Red king crab was $33/kg and Opilio snow crab at $24.80 according to Japanese customs.

Korea Market: Live King crab imports from Russia to Korea through October 2018 are 3,490 m/t (7.694mm lbs.).  Norway has delivered 783 m/t (1.726mm lbs.) of live King crab through October. Live snow crab imports were 6,229 m/t (13.732mm lbs.). Prices declined in October to an average of $25.20/kg on King crab and $18.67/kg. on  live Snow crab according to Korean Customs Service. 

China Market: Consumption increased with the cut in tariff’s on live king and snow crab. Plus the lower price levels this fall has expanded the base of consumers who could purchase crab. The delivery method of  E-commerce and direct to consumer marketing is a major factor for the success of selling of expensive seafood such as king crab and lobster.  The weekly tramper shipment reports this fall indicate 500-1,000 m/t shipping to China each week.
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U.S. Market: US imports of King crab in October are up 109% compared to the same period of 2017. Red king crab more than doubled as did Blue king crab while Golden king crab was similar to 2017. Year to date through October have now exceeded last year at 19.9mm lbs. vs 19.7mm lbs. 

JANUARY THROUGH OCTOBER
Red king crab is up.          + 3.6%
Blue king crab is down       -33%
Gold king crab is up          +13.7%
Santolla Red crab is up   +145%

US market prices were flat for the first half of 2018 as there was substantial carryover inventory. The lower cost inventories were sold off in late summer and new higher cost King crab is in the marketplace.The prices of medium size king crab are currently up in excess of $3.00/lb vs. the same period In 2017.  16/20 count Russian Golden king crab are up 29% and Red 16/20 up 25%.  

 Large size Red king crab prices  in contrast compared to  2018  Urner Barry shows only a small price increase  of .40 for 6/9 and 9/12 size. This due to the limited market for the huge legs and claws and inventory being more in balance. Current offerings show 4/7 size Red king in the  $21.00 range, 6/9 size in the low $20.00 range, and 9/12 size in the low $19.00 range. Clearly the best value at this time.

Alaska Golden king crab is now at historically high prices according to Urner Barry. The size of Alaskan Golden king crab is somewhat larger than the current Russian catch and as a product of USA is obtaining at  a premium pricein some markets.  The Golden king crab may be seen as an alternative to medium size Blue and Red king crab going forward due to the returns to the Russians on live crab vs. processed.
U.S. imports of Opilio snow crab through October are down -12.5% to 85.264mm lbs. vs 97.0409 mm lbs. in 2017. The majority of the imports are from Canada according to US Foreign trade data.   Snow crab sales have slowed with market resistance to high prices.
The Dungeness crab fishery is now delayed until at least December 30,2018  in California, Oregon, and Washington from Point Area, Ca. to the US/Canada border due to low meat infill. When it does open the first market of choice will be for the live China market and the upcoming Chinese New Year sales. It's not known what the impact of the new China tariff will have but it could have a significant effect on live sales and place more crab in the U.S. market. Prices of Clusters are in the mid to high $8.00 range, but not a lot of inventory at this time. Whole cooks are also up with the same limited supply situation.

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